Who would have predicted, in 2012, when about 13% of US High School students smoked, that by 2021 that figure would be down to under 2%?
Who would have predicted, in 2019, when over 27% of High School students were vaping, that by 2021 the percentage would be down to under 12%?
A youth smoking rate of under 2% signals the beginning of the end for the commercial tobacco industry and a huge bonus for public health. The young people who do not smoke in High School are not going to start smoking cigarettes in their 20s or 30s. If only 2% of 18 year-olds smoke now, in 20 years’ time less than 2% of 38 year-olds will smoke. Somehow, we have created the fabled “smoke-free generation! The next generation, the children of non-smokers, will be even less likely to smoke.
The fear that vaping is a gateway to smoking has been completely eliminated by the data that shows vaping is in fact a diversion from smoking. And why not? It is safer, cheaper, more convenient and more discrete. Teenage smokers will soon become curiosities, like people who still listen to cassettes tapes.
We have arrived at a really good place, where teen smoking rates are lower than we could have hoped for before vaping became a viable alternative, and even teen vaping rates are relatively low and falling. “Total nicotine use” is now back down to under 2013 levels, and more than 3/4 of student nicotine users are now exclusively vaping, which is many times safer than smoking.
Dr. John Oyston – Dr John’s Blog – 2021-04-19.
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