*March 16, 2020
About 94,000 people are currently infected with Covid-19, a bit over 7,000 have died plus 78,000 have been cured.
The number of deaths per month approximately doubled from the previous one-month period as the disease moved from China to Europe or elsewhere. Asia seems to have tamed the disease completely. China has largely reopened for business despite a dozen of new deaths per day.
Those 7,000 deaths should be compared with approximately 650,000 deaths due to flu in the world in the recent year. Covid-19 clearly continues to be a negligible killer relatively to flu – and the latter hasn’t ever led to any significant hysteria. Covid-19 may be seen to have the potential to surpass flu as a killer (and probably has done so in Italy) but nobody knows whether this potential may be realized in the whole world. Even if Covid-19 becomes the most important killer among respiratory diseases, it will be just a quantitative change in the industry of flu-like diseases.
We’re seeing amazing restrictions on the human movement, contacts, events, economy. I am writing it from the first day (out of 8) of the Italy-style softcore martial law in Czechia. Similar restrictions are imposed almost everywhere. Every hour, a country joins the lockdown; Canada did it minutes ago.
Half a billion schoolkids are skipping classes now – Greta Thunberg is no longer too special. Bars and restaurants are closed in about one-half of the world. Carmakers are stopping the production in all of Europe. You can read comments on social networks written by people who were just laid off every second. Also, I think that the real estate prices are likely to drop once the closed hotels and other things are being sold.
The globalist media have brainwashed billions of people into believing that this kind of instinctive yet hysterical behavior is needed, natural, useful, rational, and probably ethical, too. It’s neither.
The economic and otherwise societal losses will be exponentially larger than the damages to the public health. I would even argue that that the economic damages that have already taken place are larger than even the worst case scenario damages to health and lives that could materialize in a hypothetical future. These economic damages are already crippling lots of lives and they will destroy many of them in the future.
Luboš Motl – The Reference Frame – March 16, 2020.