Critics insist the models bias high, leading many to wonder how much we should trust the models upon which so many life-upending decisions are being made
The slide on page 13, Dr. Peter Donnelly warned those virtually tuned in to the technical briefing of Ontario’s grim COVID-19 projections late last week, would be the most disturbing of all. Indeed, the number was scary: Without physical distancing measures, Ontario would see 100,000 deaths over the course of the pandemic.
It wasn’t the only shocking figure: The impact of COVID-19 would have been an estimated 300,000 cases and 6,000 deaths by the end of this month alone with no interventions. An estimated 220,000 cases and 4,400 deaths have been spared by sealing off schools, banning large gatherings, shutting non-essential workplaces, closing outdoor rec facilities and, now, ticketing people $880 for walking their dogs through closed parks, according to the models. Another 1,350 deaths (from 1,600 to 250) could be prevented in the coming two weeks with further enforced measures, Donnelly, president and CEO of Public Health Ontario, said Friday.
The range of scenarios seems dizzying, the predictions seriously extreme. Already, critics are insisting the models bias high, leading many to wonder how much we should trust the models upon which so many life-upending decisions are being made.
Sharon Kirkey – National Post – April 8, 2020.
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